Biden Heads to Pennsylvania to Boost Casey in Tightening Senate Race

President Biden is making a rare trip into the battlegrounds Tuesday, where he will host a private fundraiser for Democratic Senator Bob Casey, who defending his seat against Republican challenger Dave McCormick in a Senate race that has tightened since the late summer.
Pennsylvania will be one of the most important states in the November 5 election, now less than a month away. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are virtually tied in the Keystone State. It will also be decisive in the battle to control Congress, as there are several competitive House seats in the state, while Casey and McCormick remain locked in a close race as Republicans hope to flip the Senate.
Biden, who was born in Scranton and remains popular in Pennsylvania, is hosting a fundraiser in the Philadelphia suburbs on Casey’s behalf, less than a week after Casey and McCormick faced off in their first debate in Harrisburg.
Polls show Casey, first elected in 2006, maintaining a modest lead over McCormick, a hedge fund CEO who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2022. That year, he narrowly lost the GOP primary to Dr. Mehmet Oz, who went on to lose to now-Senator John Fetterman in the general.
But the race has gotten close over the past few weeks, according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate.
Casey leads McCormick by 5.2 points in the average of recent surveys as of Tuesday morning. That is the closest the race has been since July, before Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket.
Two months ago, Casey held a 6.6 point lead. A month ago, his lead had eroded slightly to 5.8 points. His lead is now about three-and-a-half points lower than his peak in mid-August, according to FiveThirtyEight.
An Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters from September 27 to September 28, showed Casey leading by two points (47 percent to 45 percent).
Meanwhile, a BSG/GS Strategy Group poll, sponsored by the Cook Political Report, showed Casey leading by seven points (52 percent to 45 percent). It surveyed 474 likely voters from September 19 to September 25.
A Beacon Research/haw & Company Research poll, sponsored by Fox News, showed Casey leading by nine points (53 percent to 44 percent). It surveyed 1,021 registered voters from September 20 to September 24.
If Casey maintains a lead, he could benefit from the “mobilization that will trickle down from the disproportionate resources the Harris campaign is pouring into the state,” said Jennie Sweet-Cushman, professor of political science at Chatham University.
“That said, these races will be won or lost by turnout—not issues or campaigning at this point, I don’t think,” Sweet-Cushman said. “If McCormick has managed to build a solid strategy for getting his voters to cast ballots, it is obviously close enough that he could still pull it off.”
Newsweek reached out to the Casey and McCormick campaigns for comment via email.
Casey’s modest polling lead comes as the state remains a virtual toss-up in the sharply competitive presidential race.
FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate showed Harris leading by a mere 0.7 points in Pennsylvania on Tuesday. Pennsylvania, with its 19 Electoral College votes, is viewed as a must-win for Harris, as sweeping the Rust Belt “blue wall” states remains her easiest path to 270 votes.
Sweet-Cushman said that Democratic statewide candidates often run ahead of their party’s presidential candidates as some voters are still “willing to split their ticket.”
But if Trump overperforms in Pennsylvania on strong GOP turnout, it could boost McCormick.
When it comes to fundraising, Casey has a clear advantage over McCormick.
Casey has raised $31.3 million throughout the campaign, while McCormick has raised $17.7 million, according to nonprofit OpenSecrets. Casey has dispersed $23.3 million, leaving him with about $8.4 million in the bank. Meanwhile, McCormick has spent $9.5 million, leaving him with about $8.3 million on hand.
Outside PACs have also invested heavily into the Pennsylvania Senate race, with that money giving Republicans an edge. Pro-Casey PACs have spent $5.9 million on ads supporting him, and $47 million opposing McCormick. Pro-McCormick PACs, on the other hand, have pent $23 million in support of his candidacy, and $66.6 million opposing Casey.
The Republican Keystone Renewal PAC has spent the most on the race: some $43 million to support McCormick.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as “Lean Democrat,” meaning it is “considered competitive” but that Democrats have an “advantage.”
Issues like the economy, immigration and reproductive rights are important in Pennsylvania, as they are across the country. But energy and the environment are also key to voters, particularly in the western area of the state where the economy is more dependent on fracking.
McCormick has sought to tie Casey to Harris, whose previous opposition to fracking may be a sticking point for some voters in the region (Harris has said she no longer opposes the practice). Casey has never supported a fracking ban, previously saying he would vote against efforts to do so and touting union support on the campaign trail.
Casey, who has previously described himself as being personally “pro-life,” has also highlighted his support for abortion rights. Both candidates, notably, oppose a national abortion ban. McCormick has moved to the center on the issue, as voters even in conservative-leaning states have backed stronger abortion rights after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022.
Pennsylvania is closely divided between registered Democrats and Republicans and has flipped between the two parties in recent elections.
In 2020, Biden won the state by 1.2 points over Trump. But in 2016, Trump won the state by 0.7 points. Prior to Trump’s 2016 victory, no Republican won the state on the presidential level since 1988.
Casey was last up for election in 2018, when he beat back a challenge from Lou Barletta, a former Republican Congressman backed by Trump, by about 13 points.